The world stock market had no single trend on Monday | IFCM UK
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The world stock market had no single trend on Monday - 1.7.2014

The world stock market had no single trend on Monday. The U.S. economic data were generally not bad. Sales in the secondary market in May rose by 6.1%, while the forecast was just 0.5% and reached the 8-month high. This is the largest monthly increase of four years.

The Chicago PMI for June fell to 62.6 points. This is slightly worse than the forecast of 63 points, but the decline is quite logical. Since May, it hit the 7-month high of 65.5, and now it is corrected. We do not exclude that the weak price reaction to the statistics could be due to a noticeable weakening of the U.S. Dollar. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams said yesterday that the Fed should keep the interest rates near zero for at least another whole year despite an improvement in economic indicators. Perhaps an additional negative for the U.S. currency was the good macroeconomic data from the EZ and Japan. Today, we will see the manufacturing PMI from Markit in the U.S. at 13-45 CET and the ISM industrial index for June and construction costs for May. In our opinion, the forecasts are positive. Note that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite increase continued for the sixth consecutive quarter. This has not been observed for 14 years. Yesterday the trading volume on the U.S. exchanges was at the average level for the month and showing 5.8 billion shares.

European stock indices had no single direction. The good macroeconomic data were partially offset by negative corporate reports. At the same time, another major bank - the French BNP Paribas may be fined with $9 billion for service violations, have been subjected to sanctions. Today, at 9:00 am, we will see the unemployment data in the EU released for May. The forecast is neutral. European stocks rose in price in the morning. As investors decided that the penalty for the BNP Paribas is not the worst punishment.

Nikkei showed a marked increase on the publication of positive economic indicators today and the industrial Tankan PMI for June. Note that Chinese PMI index was also positive. It provided an increase in regional equity markets, as well as a positive impact on commodity futures.



The Gold price has updated its 3-month high against the weakening U.S. currency and threats of maitaining zero rates for a long time. This metal comes more expensive for two consecutive quarters. The SPDR Gold Trust reported admission of 5.68 tons of gold in its holdings (790.7 tons) on Monday, which was the largest tributary of the month. The All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation predicts a reduction in the Gold supply to India by 77% in the first half of the year. An additional factor is the Gold price growth is the increased tension in Ukraine and Iraq. The US Mint reported that the sale of gold coins peaked in five months. However, it was 58% lower than the same period last year in the first half of the year and became the lowest since 2008. Some market participants decided that the rise in the Gold price may be short because of it. In our opinion, the demand for the metal in the U.S. is not determinative, since the main customers are Asian and Middle Eastern countries.





The USDA suddenly and substantially increased the forecasts for cereal stocks at the end of the current period yesterday in its quarterly review, which caused a significant drop in prices on futures contracts. The quotes of soybeans have fallen by 5.8%, the biggest daily decline in five years. The USDA predicts its reserves of 405 million bushels and not 378 million expected by market participants. While the soybean crops could increase by 11% to the record level at 84.8 million acres. The forecast for corn stocks was raised to 3.85 billion bushels. This is 39% above the last year's level. The Cotton prices continued to decrease. Since the USDA increased its forecast of crops by 9% compared to last season to 11.4 million acres (4.6 million hectares).

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