Last night American Petroleum Institute report confirmed that the US inventories of US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate stocks fell by 1M comparing with 2.715M of expectations and 12.792M of the week before.
The Oil price has been drifting lower since Monday, March 8, as more European countries pause AstraZeneca Vaccine due to concerns after Blood clotting reports, which could slow down economic recovery and fuel demand.
On the other hand, despite the lower demand in the EU, Indian and US demand is rising, and we can expect even more demand with vaccination progress and warmer weather, which means more travel and demand for Oil.
While OPEC+ holds the current output level and will not increase it by the end of April, the market has more motivation than decreasing. Today we will have EIA inventories data, which expects a lower increase of 2.964M than 13.798M of last week. Missing this number, how it happened earlier for API data, will support higher prices towards $70.00
Technical overview- H1
In the H1 chart, RSI returned above 50, while MCD histograms back above 0-level, and with higher prices, the OBV line is softening after decreasing lower. $64.60 is the PP and key level, while $64.40 is the R1. Breathing above this level will open the doors for R2 and 3, respectively, at 66.30 and 67.20. On the flip side, S1 at 64.00 will be the main target for market bears to reach lower prices.