fb#C-COFFEE Price Forecast | Lower coffee demand bearish for coffee price | IFCM UK

Technical Analysis #C-COFFEE : 2020-07-10

Recommendation for COFFEE:

Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Below 97.88

Sell Stop

Above 102.77

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Articles 1733
RSI Neutral
Donchian Channel Buy
MA(200) Sell
Fractals Sell
Parabolic SAR Sell

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the 4-hour timeframe #C-COFFEE : H4 is falling below the 200-period moving average MA(200), which is falling itself. We believe the bearish momentum will continue as the price breaches below the lower Donchian boundary at 97.88. A pending order to sell can be placed below that level. The stop loss can be placed above 102.77. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

Coffee imports by ICO members declined in June. Will the COFFEE price continue falling?

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) estimates world exports at 10.49 million bags in June, 14.6% lower than in May 2019. And imports by ICO importing Members and the United States reached 64.22 million bags in the first half of coffee year 2019/20 (Oct/19 to March/20), 3.7% lower than in October 2018 to March 2019. The ICO reported also its composite indicator decreased by 5.2% to an average of 99.05 US cents/lb in June 2020, which is the third consecutive month of decrease. Lower demand as indicated by falling shipments is bearish for coffee.

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