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Technical Analysis HK50 : 2021-01-22

Recommendation for Hang Seng Index:

Buy
Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Above 30115.6

Buy Stop

Below 27725.7

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Articles 1733
IndicatorValueSignal
RSI Sell
MACD Buy
Donchian Channel Buy
MA(200) Buy
Fractals Buy
Parabolic SAR Buy

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe the HK50, Daily is declining toward the 200-day moving average MA(200) which is rising itself. We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the upper Donchian boundary at 30115.6. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below the lower Donchian boundary at 27725.7. After placing the pending order the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic indicator signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop-loss level (7725.7) without reaching the order (30115.6) we recommend cancelling the order: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

HK 50 forecast is bullish despite recent mixed data. Will the HK50 rebound continue?

Recent Hong Kong economic data were mixed. Hong Kong consumer price index declined less than expected though unemployment increase was bigger than expected in December. Hong Kong consumer prices fell 0.7% from a year earlier in December after 0.2% decline in November when a 1.2% drop was forecast. On the other hand the unemployment rate increased to 6.6% in the three months to December of 2020 from 6.3% in the previous quarter when an increase to 6.5% was expected. At the same time China’s economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020: Q4 GDP came in at 6.5% over year after 4.9% in Q3 when 5.9% growth was forecast. China is the biggest trade partner for Hong Kong, accounting for 57% of Hong Kong’s exports in 2019. Robust Chinese economic growth is bullish for Hong Kong stock market index.

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