fb#C-ORANGE Price Forecast | Technical setup bearish for orange price | IFCM UK

Technical Analysis #C-ORANGE : 2020-08-12

Recommendation for Orange Juice:

Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Below 112.93

Sell Stop

Above 125.15

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Articles 1592
RSI Neutral
Donchian Channel Neutral
MA(100) Sell
Fractals Sell
Parabolic SAR Sell

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe #C-ORANGE: D1 has fallen below the 100-day moving average MA(100), which is rising itself. We believe the bearish momentum will continue as the price breaches below the lower Donchian boundary at 112.93. A pending order to sell can be placed below that level. The stop loss can be placed above 125.15. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

Orange juice US inventories and imports declined in the first half of the year. Will the ORANGE price continue falling?

Florida orange growers experienced a disastrous 2019-20 season with regard to farm prices – average farm prices plummeted 50-56% from average prices in 2018-19. The reasons cited for the drop in orange juice prices include high orange juice inventories held by Florida processors combined with high juice imports and declining orange juice sales at retail outlets. And the technical bias for price is bearish currently. On the other hand, inventories of single-strength, chilled orange juice fell 9.3% through May 30 compared to a year earlier, according to Citrus Department statistics. And single-strength orange juice imports declined by 40% during the same period. Retail orange juice sales rose 1% in the US through April 11. Falling orange juice supply and higher sales are upside risk for orange juice price.

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