Today will be held ECB forum with the participation of the heads of world central banks - 29.9.2021

On Tuesday, the US dollar index rose for the third day in a row and hit a new high since November last year. Investors hope that the U.S. The Federal Reserve will nevertheless begin to reduce the monthly volume of US government and mortgage bond buybacks, which now stands at $ 120 billion. The funds for this program are now coming from the emission of money, which is an important factor in the constant increase in inflation in the United States. Today, the European Central Bank (ECB) forum will take place, at which the heads of Fed (Jerome Powell), Bank of Japan, Bank of England, ECB itself and other officials will speak. The Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar to an 18-month low following the publication of the BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Investors fear that Bank of Japan will initiate additional easing of monetary policy amid continuing deflation. The British pound fell to its lowest level since January this year amid the energy crisis in Britain. The US dollar is correcting slightly down this morning. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expects US inflation to slow to 4% at the end of this year. This is still 2 times higher than the Fed's target of 2%. In August, the growth of consumer prices in the United States amounted to 5.3%.

Yesterday, the American stock market saw a decline in quotations. This was facilitated by rising yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury up to 1.56% per annum, which is the maximum since June this year. Stocks and bonds often “compete” for investor funds. The daily fall in the S&P 500 was the highest since May 2021, and the Nasdaq since March. Additional negativity was the continued spread of the coronavirus, disagreements between Democrats and Republicans over an increase in the government debt limit for next year and weak economic data. Now the US national debt limit is $ 28.4 trillion. This is much more than the US GDP in 2020, which was $ 20.6 trillion. Potentially, a large national debt carries the risk of default. The CB Consumer Confidence indicator fell for the third time in a row in September (to its lowest since February) and was worse than expected. Pending Home Sales for August are due in the US today. Their outlook is negative. Nevertheless, futures for US stock indices are now growing in anticipation of the speech of the head of the Fed at the ECB forum.

Today world oil prices are falling for the second day in a row awaiting the release of official data on inventories. Yesterday, WTI quotes renewed their 3-year high, but then they began to actively correct downward. The independent American Petroleum Institute unexpectedly announced an increase in US oil reserves for the week by 4.1 million barrels. This happened for the first time after 9 weeks of continuous inventory reduction. Investors fear that a decrease in oil demand may be caused by the development of a new variant of the Delta coronavirus. An additional negative was the energy crises in Britain and China. From the point of view of technical analysis, Brent was unable to overcome the psychological level of $ 80 per barrel and this provoked a downward correction. As a reminder, the next OPEC + meeting will take place on October 4. So far, nothing new is expected. The cartel should increase production by 400 thousand barrels per day. US natural gas quotes yesterday renewed their maximum since December 2008. This was facilitated by the shortage of gas in Europe due to the delay in certification of the new Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.