Market Sentiment


US dollar bullish bets fell to $14.98 billion from $17.08 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to February 14. The Sentiment for dollar is still being driven by expectations of more details about expansionary policies proclaimed by President Trump prior to election. Last week President Trump promised to unveil a "phenomenal" new plan for corporate taxes very soon.

US dollar bullish bets fell to $17.08 billion from $18.53 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to February 7. The Federal Reserve held off hiking rates stating the economy was still on a moderate growth path as consumer and business sentiment improved, but investment activity remains “soft.” Data during the week confirmed economy’s recovery continues.

US dollar net long bets fell to $18.53 billion from $20.12 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to January 31. Data during the week didn’t point to a significant change in economy’s performance which could turn Fed policy makers stance more hawkish ahead of the first interest rate decision in the new year.

US dollar bullish bets fell to $20.12 billion from $24.42 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to January 24. Investor optimism for dollar moderated as President Trump’s first acts as he took office were seen as steps in line with his protectionist policy stance: he withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and promised to renegotiate trade deals.

US dollar bullish bets slid to $24.42 billion from $24.95 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to January 17. Investors reduced dollar bets on the background of mixed economic data during the week and no additional direction for dollar from Trump’s first press conference. The major positive piece of data was the sales report showing retail sales rose 0.6% on month in December from upwardly revised 0.1% in November.

US dollar long bets fell to $24.95 billion from $25.44 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to January 10. The sentiment for dollar deteriorated amid mostly weak data. First, ADP report on employment change came in weaker than expected. However, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged in December at 57.2, indicating the services sector continued expanding at steady pace. Weekly claims data were positive showing initial jobless claims fell to 235000 from 263000 in the previous week though continuing claims rose to 2102 thousand from 2112 thousand.

US dollar bullish bets rose to $24.17 billion from $22.45 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to December 27. The economic data during the week were mixed. The US economic growth was revised upward to 3.5% from 3.3% in third quarter according to the GDP final reading. The consumer confidence jumped to 113.7 from upwardly revised 109.4 in November, hitting its highest level since 2001.

US dollar bullish bets fell to $22.45 billion from $28.0 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to December 20. The decline in bullish US dollar bets happened despite the Fed Decision to hike short term rates 0.25 percentage points for the second time in a decade on December 14. And while the rate hike was widely expected as most policy makers had expressed their support for the move, the indication of a faster pace of rate hikes in 2017 than previously believed was a surprise.

US dollar net long bets slipped to $28.0 billion from $28.14 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to December 13. Economic data during the week provided no surprises to change the expectations the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates at December 13-14 policy meeting. The University of Michigan reported the December Consumer Sentiment jumped to 98 from 93.8 in November, and Initial Jobless Claims fell to 258000 from 268000 while Continuing Jobless Claims declined to 2005 thousand from 2084 thousand.

Investors increased US dollar bullish bets to $28.14 billion from $24.82 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to December 6. Data during the week did little to change the optimistic view of investors on improving US economic growth, with comments of Federal Reserve policy makers boosting expectations Federal Reserve will hike interest rates at December meeting. The Institute for Supply Management reported the Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.29 in November from 51.9 in October, and Non-Manufacturing PMI jumped to 57.2 from 54.8 while Markit’s final Composite PMI recorded no change at 54.9. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

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