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Above expected growth boosts dollar sentiment
US dollar bearish bets were cut by more than half falling to $3.45 billion from $8.03 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to October 31 released on Friday November 3. Dollar sentiment improved significantly as US economic growth in third quarter was better than expected against the background of positive data and corporate earnings.
The US GDP grew at above-expected 3% in third quarter. Corporate reports showed majority of companies beat expectations and economic data were mostly positive during the week. Durable goods orders rose 2.2% on month in September, above a 1% forecast and new home sales jumped 17% on year in September. Pending home sales were unchanged in September. Personal consumption expenditure index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.4% on month after 0.2% increase in August as consumer spending jumped from 0.1% to 1% on month in September, the biggest gain since 2009. And dollar surged after the European Central Bank announced it would reduce its monthly asset purchases from January while extending the program through at least September 2018. On negative side advance goods trade balance widened to $64.1 billion in September following a $63.3 billion deficit in August. As is evident from the Sentiment table, sentiment deteriorated for all major currencies except the British Pound . And the Pound joined the euro, Canadian and Australian dollars as the fourth major currency held net long against the US dollar.
CFTC Sentiment vs Exchange Rate
October 31 2017 | Bias | Ex RateTrend | Position $ mln | Weekly Change |
CAD | bullish | negative | 4564 | -1144 |
AUD | bullish | neutral | 3949 | -500 |
EUR | bullish | negative | 10497 | -1780 |
GBP | bullish | negative | 103 | 225 |
CHF | bearish | positive | -2592 | -1128 |
JPY | bearish | negative | -13074 | -251 |
Total | 3447 |
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