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WHEAT Technical Analysis - WHEAT Trading: 2021-04-02
Wheat Technical Analysis Summary
Below 606.37
Sell Stop
Above 628.9
Stop Loss
| Indicator | Signal |
| RSI | Neutral |
| MACD | Sell |
| Donchian Channel | Neutral |
| MA(200) | Sell |
| Fractals | Neutral |
| Parabolic SAR | Sell |
Wheat Chart Analysis
Wheat Technical Analysis
The #C-WHEAT technical analysis of the price chart on 4-hour timeframe shows WHEAT:H4 is falling under the 200-period moving average MA(200) after a failed test of the resistance line. We believe the bearish momentum will continue as the price falls below 606.37. A pending order to sell can be placed below that level. The stop loss can be placed above 628.9. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - Wheat
Wheat price decline continues after higher global production forecast by IGC. Will the wheat price continue declining?
The International Grains Council (IGC) reported last week that the 2021/22 global wheat production would rise 2.1% to 790 million metric tonnes from the prior season’s 774 million. The increase was attributed to larger crop forecasts for several countries, including exporters France - 37.3 million versus 30.4 million tonnes, and Argentina - 20.3 million versus 17.2 million. IGC forecast also 2021/22 ending stocks increase of 4.1% to 304 million mt over this year. This week US wheat sales of 344,000 mt were down 12% from last week’s 390,000 mt. And the USDA report is not expected to bring any major surprises for wheat. Expectations of ample global wheat supply are bearish for wheat price.
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